英国专家：巴塞罗那的病毒发现动摇新冠病毒流行假设

原标题：英国专家：巴塞罗那的病毒发现动摇新冠病毒流行假设

Editor‘s note： Tom Fowdy is a British political and international relations analyst and a graduate of Durham and Oxford universities。 He writes on topics pertaining to China， the DPRK， Britain and the U.S。 The article reflects the author‘s opinions， and not necessarily the views of CGTN。

编者按：汤姆?福迪（Tom Fowdy）是英国政治与国际关系分析员，毕业于英国杜伦大学和牛津大学，主要针对与中国、朝鲜、英国和美国相关的话题撰写评论。本文仅为作者本人观点。

On Saturday， news emerged that Spanish virologists had discovered purported traces of the COVID-19 virus in samples of Barcelona wastewater that were collected in March 2019。 The team at the University of Barcelona had been testing sewage since April in order to identify new potential outbreaks of the virus and subsequently found what they believe to be its genome from that sample over a year ago。

周六，有消息称西班牙病毒学家在2019年3月收集的巴塞罗那废水样本中发现了新冠病毒的痕迹。从今年四月份开始，巴塞罗那大学的该研究小组一直对污水进行检测，以确定可能发生的新疫情，但他们却从一年多以前的样本中发现了他们认为是新冠病毒基因组的物质。

“The levels of SARS-CoV-2 were low but were positive，” scientist Albert Bosch told the media。 Although more testing is needed to ensure the result is not a false positive， the finding was nevertheless described as “suggestive” and has been submitted for peer review。

科学家阿尔伯特?博施（Albert Bosch）告诉媒体，“新型冠状病毒SARS-CoV-2的含量不高，但检测呈阳性。”虽然还需要做更多的检测来确保不是假阳性，但这一发现仍然被认为具有“揭示意义”，并且已经提交给同行审议。

It is too early to draw large-scale conclusions from the development， but it should nonetheless be used to question our deepest-held assumptions。 We are ultimately still learning about this virus and where it came from。

虽然从该发现中得出全面结论还为时尚早，但它应该被用来质疑那些我们所笃信的，但无确切根据的观点。归根到底，我们仍在不断了解这种病毒及其来源。

Scientifically， there is no comprehensive answer concerning its development。 Certain actors， however， have sought to pinpoint the virus directly to make certain cultural and political points。

对于新冠病毒的演化，目前尚不存在科学、全面的解释。但某些人却试图对此下定论，以做出某种文化和政治上的暗示。

This study suggests that the story behind COVID-19 may not be as clear or as simple as initially thought。 Science must lead the way in determining its origin， which may challenge our popular assumptions and reasoning。

该研究表明，新冠肺炎疫情的发生过程可能并不像我们最初认为的那样简单明了。病毒溯源工作必须遵循科学规律，这可能会挑战大众的一些既定假设和推理。

The precise origin of COVID-19 is not scientifically certain。 What experts know is that the genome behind the virus is of a zoonotic origin， which at some point crossed the species barrier via an unknown intermediate host and mutated into something contagious to humans。

新冠病毒的具体源头还没有科学上的确切解释。专家们根据基因组分析结果得知，该病毒是一种动物源性病毒，在某一时间通过某种未知中间宿主跨越了物种壁垒并发生变异，获得感染人类的能力。

However， the circumstances as to how it specifically emerged are yet to be determined and remain a mystery on a scientific and research level。 While the development of a cluster of cases at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan has received repeated attention as the purported point and time of origin， this is also not established scientific consensus。

然而，病毒具体是在何种情况下出现的目前还没有定论，在科研方面也还是一个谜团。虽然反复被推至舆论风口浪尖的武汉华南海鲜市场所出现的聚集性感染被视作疫情起点，但对此科学界并未达成共识。

Prof。 Stephen Turner， head of the department of microbiology at Melbourne‘s Monash University， told The Guardian back in April： “I don’t think it‘s conclusive by any means，” while Donna Lu， writing in the New Scientist magazine the same month， also highlighted the mysteries regarding the certainty of its precise origin。

澳大利亚莫纳什大学微生物系负责人史蒂芬?特纳（Stephen Turner）教授四月份对《卫报》表示，“我不认为这一说法是确切结论。”此外，《新科学人》杂志记者唐娜?卢（Donna Lu）在其当月撰写的文章中也强调，关于病毒的确切来源目前仍存在许多疑团。

Medical workers pay a silent tribute to martyrs who died in the fight against the novel coronavirus disease （COVID-19） outbreak and compatriots who died of the disease， at Huoshenshan Hospital in Wuhan， central China‘s Hubei Province， April 4， 2020。 /Xinhua

The rest， of course， is all political narrative， with the “China virus” line having been hammered by politicians， media outlets and other non-scientific actors who have sought to weaponize a stigmatic blame game against the country and thrive on culturalist and ideological tropes to draw pre-determined conclusions。

科学以外的部分就都带有政治动机了。例如，某些政客、媒体和非科学机构反复称新冠病毒为“中国病毒”，意图借污名化和甩锅游戏攻击中国并利用文化和意识形态上的偏见得出预设结论。

The public， of course， always wants immediate， simple answers and in general lacks the patience， rationality， foresight and perspective of professional scientists。 As a result， the new Barcelona findings are suggestive in reminding us that the prevailing public “ideas” concerning the virus are not helpful or informative at all。

当然，公众一向喜欢简单直白的答案，并且大都缺乏专业科学家具备的耐心、理性、远见和思考方法。因此，巴塞罗那的这一新发现是具有揭示意义的。它提醒我们，公众对该病毒的普遍“想法”既无任何帮助，也不代表事实。

The potential presence of virus genomes existing a year previously in Spain does not of course give us new conclusions or consensus regarding the origins of COVID-19， it does not mean it “originated” there merely by having a presence， but by showing it at an earlier location， at an earlier time， serves to question the prevailing public logic across the world。

西班牙一年前就可能存在新冠病毒的这一发现当然不能让我们针对病毒来源得出任何新的结论或共识，因为仅仅存在于某处并不代表“起源”于该处。但证明其在更早的时间存在于另一地点却能够对目前全球公众普遍持有的观点提出质疑。

In this case， the development serves to remind the world that we cannot be armchair experts in virology and we do not know as much about the virus as we think。 Because what is a very simple and straightforward word， “virus，” for the public， is in fact an extremely complex and often immeasurable subject for actual scientists。

因此，该发现提醒世界，对于病毒，纸上谈兵是不够的。而且，我们对病毒的了解也并不像想象的那样全面。因为公众眼中简简单单的“病毒”一词，对于真正的科学家而言却是一项极其复杂又常常难以琢磨的课题。

Thus， understanding and mapping out COVID-19 is a timely process of discovery， which， owing to the mood and emotions of the public， may not always tell people the “stories” that they have assumed or even want to hear。 This is why a scientific determination must come before a political one。

对新冠病毒来源和演化的研究是一个不断探索的过程，并不会根据大众的情绪和情感带给他们所预设的，甚至是希望听到的解释。正因如此，科学的结论必须高于政治的考量。

责任编辑：吴金明